
2018 Year in Review
Before we begin our fearless forecast for this year, we need to recount our predictions for 2018. Buyers and Sellers should be pleased with how prices unfolded. Downtown condos averaged a 10% increase. Low rise under one million in Toronto also increased by 6%. The 905 area saw minimal price appreciation with York Region showing a 5% drop. However, those in the real estate industry were not as pleased, as we widely missed our sales estimates. Like others, we underestimated the significant impact of the ‘Stress Test’ (2% over actual five-year fixed rates and where buyers needed to qualify at).
2019 Sales Forecast
This is a difficult year to forecast with all the mortgage and tax changes made by Governments in 2017. Most of these changes have a short-term impact, as buyers and sellers need time to understand and adjust. The latest(OSFI) change requiring conventional mortgage borrowers to qualify at the contract rate plus 2% comes into effect January 1st. The market experienced only a modest increase in buyers trying to beat the start date in November and December. Hence, I believe that this change may slow the market in the first few months of 2018 but will have minimal impact in the long term. The Toronto Real Estate market will continue to be driven by the influx of people to the GTA (over 100,000 per year) and the continued economic growth of the City as a major international centre.
Five Market Predictions:





Assignment sales (owners selling new condos before registration) will increase in 2019. Enforcement of tax rules (profits taxed as income as opposed to capital gains, plus HST as the sale is deemed to be commercial and not residential) has made this option less attractive. But the new ‘Stress Test’ rules will make it impossible for some buyers to get a mortgage to close and they will be forced into this market segment. Because this market is not on MLS, our guess is that we will see 5,000 assignments this year.
Please contact me if you have any questions or are looking for more specific details related to your property or neighbourhood of interest.

Please contact me if you have any questions or are looking for more specific details related to your property or neighbourhood of interest.
Wishing everyone a fantastic 2019!