SALES COMMENTARYSales on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board in June were 6474 units. This was the lowest sales month in 18 months (not counting December). The question is: when will we reach the bottom?
Trying to predict the top or the bottom of any market is difficult. The best one can do is follow the trends and watch for a reversal. You can always find the top after the fact – hopefully within 30 days. We announced the top of this latest market in early April – before the Bank of Canada announced its first interest rate increase. The Bank is always late to the party and these increases will only magnify the market downturn we are in today.
We will not know when we reach the bottom of this market until after the fact. The key is to monitor the stats and watch for a momentum change. The two tables below track monthly stats from the peak of the market in March until the end of June.
HOW THE MARKET HAS CHANGED IN FOUR MONTHSThese two tables tell us that sales have decreased over the period by 41-46%. Prices are down 10-13% and active listings are up 58-81%
ALL OF TORONTO
STATS FOR ALL OF TRREB
STATS FOR 416 CONDO APARTMENTS
LOOKING FORWARD...1 We previously forecast that prices by September would equal those of September 2021. We will easily achieve that figure and they could be lower.
2 We also felt that the market would normalize in terms of sales by September. It won’t. We will not see normal sales volumes until early 2023.
3 At the half-way point, sales for the year on TRREB will be 80,000 units at best. Only one year in the last twelve years had sales that low.
4 It is still too early for some agents and then brokerages to be in financial difficulty.
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board