June sales on TREB were 8860 units. Even though they were 10% higher than June of last year, we now know how this year will unfold. May will be the peak sales month this year, and we will finish the year with 84,000 sales – 8% higher than 2018 and slightly less than 2010! The positives from this market are: 1) listings are running below that of 2018; 2) because of lower listings, prices are increasing in the 3-5% range; 3) this type of market allows people to make plans going forward; and 4) we have a strong base for the 2020 real estate market. Looking at the condo market, June sales were 3% lower than June of last year and on a year-to-date basis, they are 1% down. Why is the condo market underperforming the overall market and particularly the detached market? As condo prices have increased faster than any other market segment, the low-rise market has become more attractive for many. Further, a large part of the condo market is owned by investors and they have preferred to rent out rather than to sell their units. See our Rental Commentary for the growth in numbers. In looking at the Humber Bay condo market, sales in June were up by 8% over last year, but listings were lower. For downtown condos, sales were actually 14% lower than for June of 2018. While for the same period ‘new’ and ‘active’ listings were unchanged from a year ago. The interesting point was that ‘new’ listings for June were actually lower in number than ‘active’ listings at month end, meaning supply is shrinking not growing!
This chart plots monthly MLS® sales for the current year and previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. Source: Toronto Real Estate Board